In Times of Uncertainty, Feeling Certain about Your Plan

As I was listening to Fed chair Janet Yellen’s testimony in front of Congress last week, I was intrigued by a tweet from Morgan Housel: “Go back to 2008 and tell people that in 2016 our biggest headwind would be low oil prices and a strong dollar. Economics is hard. Not in a “things are actually good today” way. But in mid-2008 surging oil prices and a falling dollar were a big headwind.”

As a Financial Advisor, I read every piece of economic data available to me and follow the thought processes of the top thinkers at virtually all the key financial institutions so I can carefully invest money on behalf of our clients.

Here’s what I’ve discovered: none of them, and none of us, have been given a roadmap to what the future holds. They can watch and study the relevant economic indicators, but they cannot predict the financial future with absolute certainty. We all live with uncertainty while trying to make the best decisions we can with the information available.

Given the certainty of uncertainty, what can individuals do to best prepare for their financial future?

With all of the speculation about the upcoming elections, questions about possible negative interest rates, and concerns about international instability, it’s easy to feel anxious about the potential effects on the economy and on your savings and investments. Particularly because the airwaves and the Internet are full of news reports, commentary, blogposts and Tweets about how volatile and risky the markets are.

One thing that is certain: there will always be volatility and risk in the markets. That’s what makes the stock market the stock market. Even if we are currently experiencing a bit more than just normal market volatility, remember that the markets have historically rebounded extremely well after corrections (which are considered a drop of at least 10%). Don’t take my word for it, take a look at the chart below:

 

These charts show 27 corrections of at least 10% or more since 1987. All of those corrections had one thing in common: they all rebounded with a bullish rally. What history has shown is that, over the long run, markets continue to move higher.

What does this mean for individual savers and investors? No matter your age or experience with financial planning and investments, there is one universal “must” that applies to everyone. You need a financial plan:  a carefully thought-out, customized financial plan, not just something you downloaded from Google. Once you have that plan in place, the next steps are to implement it, then put your head down and trust in that plan.

This current market in particular highlights the importance of having a financial plan that is both age-appropriate and risk-adjusted to your specific financial situation, goals, and needs. If you’re in your 20s or 30s, for instance, the correction we’re experiencing is a great opportunity. Why? Because you have the luxury of time on your side. With the market currently down significantly from where it was a year ago, this is a great time to implement a dollar cost averaging strategy and start saving and investing on a consistent basis.

One of the things that differentiates us at Sherman Wealth, however, is that we believe that no two people are alike and that everyone’s investment strategy and portfolio should be customized to suit his or her individual situation, needs, and goals. We get to know each client – or potential client – so we can analyze their actual risk tolerance in a holistic way, rather than just plugging their age and one or two other factors into a simple, one-size-fits all algorithm the way some of the Robo-Advisor platforms do. Then we create a plan that is designed to work for our clients.

I can’t tell you what the market is going to do tomorrow or six months from now – no one can. But with a well-thought-out financial plan – one that takes into consideration who you are now, where you want to be, and how much risk you can tolerate – you will feel much more confident about your own strategy and less likely to panic about what the next crazy pundit to pop up on the internet has to say.

Photo Source: AP

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The views expressed in this blog post are as of the date of the posting, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This blog contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.
Please note that nothing in this blog post should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any security or separate account. Nothing is intended to be, and you should not consider anything to be, investment, accounting, tax or legal advice. If you would like investment, accounting, tax or legal advice, you should consult with your own financial advisors, accountants, or attorneys regarding your individual circumstances and needs. No advice may be rendered by Sherman Wealth unless a client service agreement is in place.
If you have any questions regarding this Blog Post, please Contact Us.

When A Storm Hits Are Investors Still Gluten-Free?

Empty Shelves

More snow coming?

Get ready for Instagrams and TV reports about empty bread shelves!

Here’s one from my local store before the blizzard a couple of weeks ago:

BreadShelvesNo matter how many people have resolved to stick to a gluten-free diet, that gluten seems much more appealing when a storm is on the horizon and gluten-free bread may get harder to find.

The same thing happens to investors. When the market is stormy, anxious investors often disregard their financial plans and start switching to what they perceive as “staples,’ sometimes at surge prices.

The trick with smart investing, as well smart shopping, is to make sure you’ve got enough of what you need – and want – before the storm hits, not during a run on the shelves. If you’re gluten-free, that means having a pantry already stocked with gluten-free pasta and a gluten-free loaf of bread in the freezer – not to mention beans, rice and tomato sauce – to tide you through the blizzard. It also means sticking to what you know has made sense for you in the past and realizing that two days without bread is not the end of the world – the bread will return to the shelves once the storm has passed.

Likewise, if you know your risk tolerance and have already planned effectively, you’ll have a balanced portfolio that contains the right balance of stocks and other less volatile instruments before a storm hits. With a fully diversified asset allocation strategy, there will be parts of your portfolio that go up, as well as other parts that go down, during times of stress. That way you’ll be comfortable sticking to your investment strategy and plan when the market is stormy. Plus, you’ll have purchased those less volatile instruments before pundits start shouting and everyone starts panic-purchasing.

A good financial advisor will help you build a portfolio strategy that truly for reflects your risk tolerance and, importantly, helps you understand exactly where the risk is in your portfolio. Your advisor will help you understand if, when and why to own bonds, Munis, Treasuries, and CDs, and how much of a cash component makes sense for your particular situation and need for liquidity.

The volatility we’re experiencing, current geopolitical uncertainty (like Japanese negative interest rates), and Federal Reserve uncertainty are all great litmus tests to determine whether you have a properly diversified portfolio and whether or not it’s an accurate match for your true risk tolerance.  If current market conditions or any paper losses you may be experiencing make you feel uncomfortable – or keeps you up at night – it’s likely that your investment strategy does not match your actual risk tolerance and needs to be re-balanced.

If, however, you’ve worked with your financial advisor and are comfortable with where you, then you’re best bet is probably to ignore the noise, ignore the panicking pundits, and stick to your saving and investing plan. Remember, if your investments made sense to you a couple of weeks ago, they probably continue to make sense for you, even during market volatility.

Just like a diversified pantry will help you stick to your nutritional goals when there’s a run on the supermarket, a good fee-only financial advisor can help you create a portfolio that is truly diversified, risk appropriate, and with the exact amount of liquidity that makes sense for your long-term goals, so you can sit back and weather the storm with confidence.

Photo Source: Reuters/Shannon Stapleton

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The views expressed in this blog post are as of the date of the posting, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This blog contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.
Please note that nothing in this blog post should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any security or separate account. Nothing is intended to be, and you should not consider anything to be, investment, accounting, tax or legal advice. If you would like investment, accounting, tax or legal advice, you should consult with your own financial advisors, accountants, or attorneys regarding your individual circumstances and needs. No advice may be rendered by Sherman Wealth unless a client service agreement is in place.
If you have any questions regarding this Blog Post, please Contact Us.

How Diversified is your Diversification?

Eggs

In November yet another firm fell victim to the growing Valeant fallout as Tiger Ratan Capital Fund LP fell 33% over the past three months, wiping out gains for 2015.

Those losses stemmed from the fact that Valeant accounted for 20% of TRC’s U.S. holdings. But they weren’t alone. Many well-respected funds, including the mighty Sequoia Fund, and hedge fund manager Bill Ackman’s Pershing Capital also had extensive exposure to long time Wall Street darling Valeant and suffered losses not only of value – but of face as well.

The dramatic losses came as quite a shock to many of the investors who own these – and other affected – funds, and who assumed that the funds were diversified – when in fact they weren’t. By going out on a limb and investing too much of their allocation in what has been one of Wall Street’s hottest stocks for years, many respected “hedge” funds experienced huge capital losses that it will take years to recover from.

In fact, of the 1,000 hedge funds tracked by Symmetric.IO, approximately 12% had a position in Valeant. A startling 32% of Valeant’s shares were held by hedge funds.

When Diversification isn’t Diversification

Having 20% of your portfolio in one stock is a huge risk for anyone. You never know when the next Enron or Worldcom may be and, because of accusations of unorthodox practices, it may very well be Valeant.

On the other hand, Valeant could still turn out to be a home run and deliver big time. No one really knows, which is why diversification is so key.

Many investors diversify with ETFs and mutual funds. But how many investors are absolutely certain that the mutual funds they are counting on to provide diversification, are, in fact, properly diversified themselves?

When that Hot Stock is Too Much of a Good Thing

When a “hot stock” or fund keeps climbing, it’s tempting to want to jump on the bandwagon, and the same is true for a hot sector. That’s no doubt why so many otherwise experienced fund managers over-exposed themselves to Valeant and to the health sector in general.

But while a portfolio with correlated assets that tend to do well together, is also a portfolio with assets that can tend to do poorly together when the winds shift. As Ben Carlson put it in a recent blog post: “Diversification requires finding the right balance between eliminating unsystematic risk (risk that’s specific to single securities or industries) and di-worsification by adding too many overlapping funds.”

Put another way: it’s not enough to put your eggs in different baskets, the eggs themselves need to be diversified, some plain, some speckled, and the speckled ones should be speckled in different ways.

A properly diversified mutual fund or ETF allow you to invest in a sector or a “hot stock” while mitigating risk. Which is no doubt what the investors who held Tiger, Pershing, and Sequoia thought they were doing.

The Moral of the Story

Due diligence. While you and your financial advisor are most likely diversifying your holdings, make sure that your holdings are also diversifying their holdings. Review your mutual funds frequently to make sure that their strategies, risk tolerance, and diversification standards align with yours and that they are not over-weighted chasing impressive returns from a couple of current wall street darlings.

The jury is still out on Valeant and on the funds that held it. It may in fact recover, although it would have to recover quickly to make up for the loss of momentum for the funds and investors that held it.

Nonetheless, it’s an important lesson for individual investors. A truly diversified portfolio is made up of truly diversified assets.

 

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This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and is not to be considered investment advice. The securities mentioned herein are for illustration of the concepts discussed and are not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Please see additional disclosures.